Fitch says U.S. Venezuela policy has minimal effect on North American oil
"Recent U.S. involvement in Venezuela could ultimately support oil production growth in the country and benefit U.S. exploration and production (E&P) companies should they result in policy shifts that enable increased foreign participation in the sector," the agency said.
The statement noted that any significant benefits would require substantial investment and time, with current incentives remaining weak in an already oversupplied global market.
Fitch added that Canadian crude exports might face downward price pressure in an unlikely scenario where Venezuelan supply rises quickly, but emphasized that Canadian producers are resilient enough that credit ratings would not be meaningfully affected.
The agency also highlighted that U.S. refineries—particularly those with advanced capabilities—could gain from the situation. Increased access to Venezuela’s reserves and opportunities to rebuild infrastructure could eventually expand production capacity, lower input costs, and improve profit margins.
Meanwhile, President Donald Trump declared Sunday that the U.S. is “in charge” of Venezuela following the military operation that captured Nicolas Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores. Both were flown to New York, where they pleaded not guilty to drug- and weapons-related charges.
Trump also announced that major American oil companies would be tasked with rebuilding Venezuela’s energy infrastructure, pledging billions in private investment without reliance on government funding.
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